State of the Season: How will Novak Djokovic fare in the final months of 2024?

Might the Serbian’s autumn of ’24 be his training block for ’25?

What’s at Stake

At this stage of Novak Djokovic’s career, nothing is really at stake for him. He hasn’t merely matched tennis’ great achievements, he has created records that never existed—for example, winning singles titles at each major at least three times. It wasn’t that long ago that we marveled at a player winning a single major past the age of 30. To think that in 2023, the year Djokovic turned 36, he reached the finals of all four majors, winning three.

Still, Djokovic hasn’t won a single ATP tournament this year, the first time that’s been the case in late September since he was an 18-year-old in 2005. But at the Olympics, Djokovic earned a title that he deeply cherishes. Surely, one of the most powerful images of the 2024 tennis year was seeing the Serbian on his knees following his gold-medal victory over Carlos Alcaraz.

“I don’t know what to say,” Djokovic said that day. “I’m still in shock, honestly

All year, Djokovic had pointed himself towards the Olympics. But this was hardly a case of a champion methodically finding his best form. There were early-round losses at Indian Wells and Rome. At Roland Garros, in the wake of playing two straight five-setters, Djokovic suffered a knee injury that required surgery. Remarkably, he was able to compete at Wimbledon, where, as things look now, his run to the finals was in large part a tune-up for the Olympics. Returning to Paris for the Summer Games, Djokovic benefited from the two-out-of-three set format, and won six matches without dropping a set, including a victory over Rafael Nadal. The gold-medal mission accomplished, Djokovic next played at the US Open, where his title defense ended in the third round.

“It was just really a big struggle mentally for me to play these three matches here, because I wasn’t playing even close to my best,” Djokovic said in New York, after taking a third-round loss to Alexei Popyrin. “So, you know, it’s not good to be in that kind of state where you feel okay physically, and of course you’re motivated because it’s a Grand Slam, but you just are not able to find your game. That’s it.

“The game is falling apart, and I guess you have to accept that tournaments like this happen. Yeah, you could argue that it’s because of the Olympics, but I don’t know. I don’t want to analyze that right now.”

Djokovic has now won at least one tour-level title a year every year since 2006—that’s NINETEEN years in a row.

Motivation

As the season nears its end, it’s uncertain how Djokovic will most productively point himself. One plausible scenario would be for him not to compete at all this autumn, thoroughly rest and, soon enough, commence rigorous training in hopes of returning to Melbourne and winning a staggering 11^th Australian Open title.

The more likely scenario is that Djokovic will play the events he’s required to enter—all the while knowing that there’s little pressure on him to win. Perhaps, as Wimbledon helped Djokovic prepare for the Olympics, the autumn of ’24 will be the training block for ’25.

Tournaments to Watch

Djokovic is automatically entered in two ATP Masters 1000 events: Shanghai (October 2-13) and Paris (October 28-November 3). Perhaps he might also play Vienna or Basel, both of which take place October 19-27. He is currently ninth in the ATP Race to Turin.