How will the Boston Red Sox navigate the wrinkle of the qualifying offer this winter?

When players hit free agency, their teams have the option to offer them a binding, one-year contract worth a set price depending on the year. If the free agent accepts the contract, they are locked into that salary and cannot pursue other offers, but if they reject and sign elsewhere, the offering team receives draft pick compensation.

This year’s qualifying offer has officially been set at $21.05 million, which is no small chunk of change when factored into the Red Sox’s or any team’s payroll. And Boston will soon have to make a difficult decision on whether or not to hand that chunk of change to its 2024 home run leader.

29-year-old Tyler O’Neill, who arrived in Boston last December in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals, had some fantastic moments in his lone season with the Red Sox, highlighted by his 31 home runs, the second-most of his career. But he also struck out a ton, remained injury-prone, and hasn’t looked like the athlete he was early in his St. Louis days.

It’s a close call, but one insider has made up his mind. Sean McAdam of MassLive believes the Red Sox should still pursue a reunion with O’Neill, but not offer him the binding qualifying offer.

“The $21.05 million would also constitute an overpay,” McAdam said. “But the Red Sox are desperate for balance in their lineup and will need a righty power bat from somewhere. And while a one-year deal at this number would be more than O’Neill is worth, the Red Sox would be limiting their liability by signing him for a single season — not a small factor when you consider his injury history.”

“Best guess: the Red Sox will forego a qualifying offer and attempt to entice O’Neill with a shorter deal that includes some language to protect them should injuries limit him. Whether that’s enough to retain him remains to be seen.”

McAdam’s logic makes sense, because the Red Sox are more well-prepared to lose a bat of his caliber than most teams with all the prospects on the way. But it’s hard to see how this scenario winds up in a reunion.

Not tendering O’Neill the qualifying offer seems like a sign that he likely isn’t coming back. There are too many teams that need a right-handed bat that will be willing to pay a premium price for his slugging potential. If Boston isn’t one of those teams, he’ll gladly take his talents elsewhere.